One of the first questions people ask when they start using AI seriously is whether it will affect their job. The answer is probably yes.
The question is important enough that at least four different research teams have tried to quantify exactly how much overlap there is between jobs that humans can do and jobs that AI can do, using a very detailed database of the work required in 1,016 different professions. Each study has concluded the same thing: Almost all of our jobs will overlap with the capabilities of AI. As I’ve alluded to previously, the shape of this AI revolution in the workplace looks very different from every previous automation revolution, which typically started with the most repetitive and dangerous jobs. Research by economists Ed Felten, Manav Raj, and Rob Seamans concluded that AI overlaps most with the most highly compensated, highly creative, and highly educated work. College professors make up most of the top 20 jobs that overlap with AI (business school professor is number 22 on the list ). But the job with the highest overlap is actually telemarketer. Robocalls are going to be a lot more convincing, and a lot less robotic, soon.
Only 36 job categories out of 1,016 had no overlap with AI. Those few jobs included dancers and athletes, as well as pile driver operators, roofers, and motorcycle mechanics (though I spoke to a roofer, and they were planning on using AI to help with marketing and customer service, so maybe 35 jobs). You will notice that these are highly physical jobs, ones in which the ability to move in space is critical. It highlights the fact that AI, for now at least, is disembodied. The boom in artificial intelligence is happening much faster than the evolution of practical robots, but that may change soon. Many researchers are trying to solve long-standing problems in robotics with large language models, and there are some early signs that this might work, as LLMs make it easier to program robots that can really learn from the world around them.
So, regardless of its nature, your job is likely to overlap with AI in the near future. That doesn’t mean your job will be replaced. To understand why, we need to consider jobs more carefully, viewing them from multiple levels. Jobs are composed of bundles of tasks. Jobs fit into larger systems. Without considering systems and tasks, we can’t really understand the impact of AI on jobs.
Take my role as a business school professor. As the 22nd most overlapping of 1,016 jobs, I am a little concerned. But my job isn’t just a single, indivisible entity. Instead, it comprises a variety of tasks: teaching, researching, writing, filling out annual reports, maintaining my computer, writing letters of recommendation, and more. The job title “professor” is just a label; the daily grind consists of this mix of tasks.
Can AI take over some of these tasks? The answer is yes, and frankly, there are tasks that I wouldn’t mind offloading to AI, like administrative paperwork. But does that mean my job will vanish? Not really. Getting rid of some tasks doesn’t mean the job disappears. In the same way, power tools didn’t eliminate carpenters but made them more efficient; and spreadsheets let accountants work faster but did not eliminate accountants. AI has the potential to automate mundane tasks, freeing us for work that requires uniquely human traits such as creativity and critical thinking—or, possibly, managing and curating the AI’s creative output, as we discussed in the last chapter.
However, this isn’t the end of the story. The systems within which we operate play a crucial role in shaping our jobs as well. As a business school professor, an obvious system is tenure, meaning that I cannot be easily replaced, even if my job were outsourced to AI. But more subtle are the many other systems at a university. Let’s say an AI could deliver a lecture better than I can. Would students be willing to outsource their learning to AI? Would our classroom technology be able to accommodate AI teaching? Would the deans of the university feel comfortable using AI in this way? Would the magazines and sites that rank schools punish us for doing so? My job is connected to many other jobs, customers, and stakeholders. Even if AI automated my job, the systems in which it works are less obvious.
So let’s put AI into context and talk about what it can do at the level of tasks and systems.
Excerpted with permission from Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI, by Ethan Mollick, in agreement with Portfolio, an imprint of Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House LLC. Copyright © Ethan Mollick, 2024.
Ethan Mollick is a professor of management at Wharton, specializing in entrepreneurship and innovation. His research has been featured in various publications, including Forbes, The New York Times, and The Wall Street Journal. He is the creator of numerous educational games on a variety of topics. His new book, Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI, is out April 2, 2024, from Penguin Random House/Portfolio.
